Second Thoughts

I bet that Trump and company are having second thoughts about JD, he is becoming a boat anchor for Trump. The polling numbers show it!

Bloomberg reports,

Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across seven battleground states, as the vice president rides a wave of enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

Harris was backed by 48% of voters to 47% for Trump — a statistical dead heat — in the swing states that will likely decide November’s election. That’s a stronger showing than the two-point deficit for President Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race. The Democratic vice president overtook her GOP rival in Arizona and Nevada, and more than doubled Biden’s lead over Trump in Michigan.

The Economist (It is a couple of days old which shows you how fast things are moving) writes…

Donald Trump v Kamala Harris: who’s ahead in the polls?
July 31st 2024


On November 5th Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president. Until June 27th it seemed that the match-up would be between the same two candidates as in 2020: Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent, and Donald Trump, his Republican predecessor in office. But that night Mr Biden delivered a disastrous debate performance. It immediately made Democrats question Mr Biden’s fitness for the job. On July 21st he bowed to pressure and withdrew from the race. He endorsed his vice-president, Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate.

Polls after Mr Biden dropped out suggest Ms Harris is closer to Mr Trump than her predecessor was. The chart above shows the latest national averages. Ms Harris has the support of enough delegates to the Democratic National Convention to win the nomination. She will have little time to unite her party, fire up voters, and counter Mr Trump’s campaign. Mr Biden’s presidency has been defined by high inflation, big industrial-policy bills and turmoil abroad, things which Republicans will seek to pin on Ms Harris too. But she has one clear advantage over Mr Biden: her age. At 59 she is over two decades younger than he is, and 18 years younger than Mr Trump.

Mr Trump, meanwhile, has a dismal record: supporters tried to overturn his election loss in 2020; he faces federal charges over his alleged participation in that scheme and has been convicted of felonies relating to his 2016 presidential campaign. On July 13th, at a rally in Pennsylvania, a 20-year-old man shot at Mr Trump, grazing the former president’s ear and killing a bystander. After this assassination attempt, politicians of all stripes urged allies and rivals to lower the political temperature. Mr Trump, who showed rare restraint in the aftermath of the shooting, has since returned to his divisive rhetoric in speeches.

The Arab news outlet Aljazeera writes,

United States Vice President Kamala Harris has erased former President Donald Trump’s lead in the race for the White House, with the Democratic and Republican standard-bearers now locked in a dead heat, newly released polling shows.

Harris has closed the gap with Trump both nationwide and in key battleground states since becoming the de-facto Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 presidential race, according to a series of polls published on Tuesday.

In another Bloomberg article,

Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across seven battleground states, as the vice president rides a wave of enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

The University of California at Riverside the school's newspaper writes,

Polling expert draws early conclusions from Harris vs. Trump
Andy Crosby advises that - as ever - the election will be decided in the battleground states
Author: J.D. Warren
July 30, 2024


A couple weeks back, the 2024 presidential race was upended by the decision of President Joe Biden not to seek reelection. Since then, political pundits have scrambled to assess the new Harris-Trump dynamic. The dust is settling on a flurry of polls, and we asked UCR polling and survey expert Andy Crosby, an assistant professor in the School of Public Policy, to weigh in on trends. He approached his assessment below from the perspectives of Harris’ introduction to the race; the effect of JD Vance as the GOP’s vice presidential choice, and the importance of considering trends not in the popular vote, but in the electoral college vote.

[…]

One of the changes we have seen is an increase in Vice President Harris’ favorability in the polls recently. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday, 43% of respondents reported having a favorable view of Harris, compared to just 35% one week ago. Harris’ favorability rating is also now higher than both President Joe Biden (37%) and former President Donald Trump (36%). A large majority of Democrats are also enthusiastic about Harris’ candidacy: 88% of respondents reported being either “very enthusiastic” or “somewhat enthusiastic” about Harris’ candidacy.

And how did Trump’s boat anchor affect the polling?

In addition to Vice President Harris, we also have another newcomer to our political polling for the presidential election: Republican vice-presidential candidate Senator JD Vance of Ohio. The New York Times/Siena College poll mentioned above shows slightly more respondents viewing Vance unfavorably than favorably (36% favorable, 40% unfavorable). In the ABC News/Ipsos poll mentioned above, which is slightly more recent, 24% of respondents indicated they had a favorable opinion of Vance, and 39% indicated they had an unfavorable opinion. Notably, a considerable portion of respondents in the ABC News/Ispos poll responded that they either had no opinion of Vance (17%) or they did not know (19%). Like Harris, we may see movement in these results as voters get to know Vance more and we may potentially see a televised debate featuring him and the Democratic vice-presidential nominee.

Glub, glub, glub as he pulls Trump down underwater.

Then we have who will be the choice for VP Harris for VP…

The importance of battleground states is also one reason that Vice President Harris may select a running mate who is popular in a battleground state, such as Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona or Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Although these potential vice-presidential candidates do not register large percentages of either favorable or unfavorable views at this point in the race, this is mostly because they are not as well-known outside of their home states. That will likely change once voters get to know the candidate.

My choice for VP is Sen. Mark Kelly. Wikipedia says,

Mark Edward Kelly (born February 21, 1964) is an American politician, former astronaut, and United States Navy Captain who has been the junior United States senator from Arizona since 2020. A member of the Democratic Party, he was elected in the special election held following the death of Senator John McCain, defeating incumbent Republican Martha McSally.

You might remember his wife who was also in politics, Kelly married U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords of Tucson, Arizona, on November 10, 2007, who was the target of an assassination attempt.

 

My prediction is VP Harris will win by a landslide! I think Trump will go on the defensive, more belittling, more name calling, more lies, and it will turn voters from him. They will open their eyes tot he real Trump. But this election will be won by who can get the voter out the vote!

VOTE! This November vote Blue, vote all Blue… the Reds want to tear the country down.