My Oh My What Is A Party To Do?

What is a political party to do that is based on animosity against others to do?

I make my living off the evening news
Just give me something, something I can use
People love it when you lose, they love dirty laundry
Well, I coulda been an actor, but I wound up here
I just have to look good, I don't have to be clear
Come and whisper in my ear, give us dirty laundry
Dirty Laundry – Don Henley, Eagles

They are all frazzled over the new FBI data on crime… crime is down! Oh my oh my.

Killings in the U.S. are dropping at a historic rate. Will anyone notice?
LA Times
By David Lauter
Oct. 20, 2023

Homicides in the U.S. dropped significantly in 2022 and have plummeted even faster this year, putting the country on track for one of the biggest declines in killing ever recorded, crime statistics show.

If that comes as a surprise, you’re not alone.

Crime did rise nationwide in 2020 and 2021. The disruption caused by a deadly pandemic, a record increase in the availability of guns, a pullback of policing in some cities and perhaps other factors combined to create a surge in homicides and other crimes.

That national tide has started to recede, but public perception has not kept pace.

Yes, and why is that? Maybe it the mainstream news media? They love a nice bloody story. They make it “Breaking News” “...man murdered in your town!!!! Details at eleven!”

Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em all around

 ***

Let’s start with the numbers.

The FBI’s annual report on the nation’s crime statistics showed a 6% decline in homicides in 2022. The drop exceeded what most crime experts expected, said Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst and consultant whose AH Datalytics’ site is a widely cited source of information.

[…]

“A 10% decline would be the largest ever recorded,” he said.

The decline goes beyond homicides: Violent crime overall ticked down in 2022 across the country, the FBI numbers showed, returning the U.S. pretty much to the level of 2019, before the COVID-19-era increase.

That’s consistent with the pattern of the last dozen years. Despite some fluctuations, violent crime nationwide has stayed largely at the same level since 2011, when it hit a plateau after 20 years of steady declines.

But you would never know that by the mainstream news agencies… their lead stories are always about murders, homicides, attacks on persons, and then way down near the bottom of the news just a, “FBI report a decrease in crime” and that is usually it on the news.

We got the bubble-headed bleach-blonde who comes on at five
She can tell you about the plane crash with a gleam in her eye
It's interesting when people die, give us dirty laundry
Can we film the operation? Is the head dead yet?
You know the boys in the newsroom got a running bet
Get the widow on the set, we need dirty laundry

***

The MSM is in business to sell ads and the people love blood and guts!

Why the gap between perception and reality?

The power of anecdote explains much of it: In a country of nearly 340 million people, some crime takes place every hour, every day. Those incidents stick in people’s minds, especially when the details are grisly. Vivid stories have far more power than dry numbers to shape how people view their world. And in the social media era, crimes anywhere can be just a click away.

“Every time there’s a smash-and-grab, it just amplifies in people’s minds that crime’s out of control,” said pollster David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University polling center, which has surveyed residents of many of the country’s major cities.

Anecdotes have even greater impact when they’re fresh and crime statistics aren’t. Unlike economic statistics, which arrive monthly in real time, the U.S. system for reporting crime data, first set up in the 1930s, remains antiquated and slow. By the time the government reports the data, it’s often too old to inform national debates.

And it is usually not on the front page above the fold but buried somewhere inside.

Credit: Pat Byrnes, PoliticalCartoons.com / CTNewsJunkie via Cagle Cartoons  

The article goes on to write about blood and guts politics designed to create fear.

And, of course, “part of what causes the gap between perception and reality is politics,” said Democratic pollster and strategist Anna Greenberg, whose firm has conducted several studies on public attitudes toward crime.

[…]

There’s an obvious racial subtext for many of those voters’ concerns about crime. But race isn’t the only factor. For many voters, worries about crime reflect a concern about “a sense of disorder and chaos” in the world, Greenberg said.

“That doesn’t come out of nowhere. We’ve been in a very unsettling period in our country,” she added.

There’s evidence, however, that even if public perceptions of crime remain at odds with reality, voters are less prone to support “lock them up” as a solution.

The “Lock ‘em Up” party here in Connecticut said according to the CT Insider,

A rift between suburban Republicans and urban Democrats that has been widening since the 2020 police accountability law, erupted this week when House Minority Leader Vincent Candelora called for disbanding a 10-year-old panel that has been focused on juvenile justice reform but has "done nothing to help our children."

[…]

But Candelora, in what has been a GOP theme in recent years, said that the General Assembly has been "ignoring" the behavior of young people who now feel that there are no consequences for escalating cases of breaking and entering and car theft that he charged has culminated in the recent stabbing death of a teen from his town of North Branford, after an altercation on an East Haven playground, as well as the recent shooting death of a New Haven youth.

But an article on CT PBS has a different view…

Violent crime, motor vehicle theft drop again in CT, report finds
Connecticut Public Radio
By Jaden Edison / CTMirror
October 17, 2023

Violent crime in Connecticut continued a downward trend in 2022, according to a new report, contradicting some Republicans’ claims during the most recent general election that violence was spiraling out of control.

Connecticut saw a 13% decrease in violent crime between 2021 and 2022 — from 6,272 offenses to 5,464, according to the state’s annual crime report released on Monday.

The violent crime rate per 100,000 residents in 2022 was the state’s lowest in the last decade. Property crime offenses fell by 3% since the last report. Overall crime decreased by 4%.

“This report demonstrates that Connecticut continues to be one of the safest states in the country, with violent and property crimes down from the previous year and below or trending toward pre-pandemic levels,” Gov. Ned Lamont said in a statement late Monday afternoon.

The new crime statistics refute Republican claims raised when last year’s crime report was released that Connecticut, typically regarded as one of the safest states in the nation, is dealing with an out-of-control crime problem.

But every time you turn on the news…

Dirty little secrets, dirty little lies
We got our dirty little fingers in everybody's pie
Love to cut you down to size, we love dirty laundry
We can do the innuendo, we can dance and sing
When it's said and done, we haven't told you a thing
We all know that crap is king, give us dirty laundry
And that is all the people see! Blood and guts!

***

The Republican party wants you to fear! Fear people who are different and fear going out the door. But if you look at national crime statistics by states you will see two amazing things… the lock-em-up states and no gun laws tend to have the highest crime rates while the liberal states tend to have the lowest crime rates.

Five states with the highest violent crime rates in the US
Violent crimes per 100K people in 43 states for which statistically reliable data was available, 2021 State     Violent crime rate
Arkansas        709
Tennessee     675
Louisiana       661
Alabama        596
Alaska           551
Five states with the lowest violent crime rates in the US
Violent crimes per 100K people in 43 states for which statistically reliable data was available, 2021 State     Violent crime rate
Vermont                    186
Connecticut              162
New Hampshire       137
Maine                      113
New York                102
From USA Facts

However if you listen to the Republicans tell it the Democratic states have a run away crime spree.