How Does That Saying Go? Figures Don’t…

Lie but liar can figure. Well the conservatives like to twist the data to fit their dogma and in our case they twist the research on how many trans people detransition.

This article is by Dr. James Cantor from his Sexology Today blog. You might remember his name, he worked with Dr. Zucker at the debunked Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH).

Statistics faulty on how many trans- kids grow up to stay trans-?

The National Post recently covered the CBC’s cancellation of a BBC documentary about transgender children (Why CBC cancelled a BBC documentary that activists claimed was ‘transphobic’).  In that coverage, the Post shared claims made by some activists criticizing some scientific studies, but did not apparently fact-check those claims, so I thought I would outline the studies here.  For reference, in a previous post, I listed the results of every study that ever followed up transgender kids to see how they felt in adulthood (Do trans- kids stay trans- when they grow up?).  There are 12 such studies in all, and they all came to the very same conclusion: The majority of kids cease to feel transgender when they get older.

The Post conveyed criticisms alleged about two of those:  “One study of Dutch children, in particular, assumed that subjects had ‘desisted’ purely because they stopped showing up to a gender identity clinic.”  Although unnamed, the claim appears to be referring to Steensma et al. (2013), which followed up on 127 transgender kids.  Of them: 47 said they were still transgender; 56 said they were no longer transgender (46 said so directly, 6 said so via their parents, and 4 more said so despite not participating in other aspects of the study); and 24 did not respond to the invitation to participate in the study or could not be located.  Because all the medical services for transition are free in the Netherlands and because there is only one clinic providing those services, the researchers were able to check that none of the 24 had actually transitioned despite having the opportunity to do so.  Steensma therefore reported that (80/127 =) 63% of the cases desisted.  The alleged criticism is that one should not assume that the 24 who did not respond or could not be found were desisters.  Regardless of whether one agrees with that, the irrelevance of claim is clearly seen simply by taking it to its own conclusion: When one excludes these 24, one simply finds a desistance rate of (56/103 =) 54% instead of 63%.  That is, although numerically lower, it nonetheless supports the very same conclusion as before. The majority of kids cease to feel transgender when they get older.

The other alleged criticism was that a study “cast too wide a net on which children were legitimately displaying gender dysphoria.”  Although also unnamed, this seems to refer to Drummond et al. (2008), which followed up 25 kids assessed in childhood for gender issues: 15 of the 25 received official diagnoses for their gender dysphoria, and 10 were judged to be experiencing the feelings, but to be “subthreshold” for an official diagnosis.  That is, the alleged criticism is that including “subthreshold” cases would water down the results from cases who are formally diagnosed.  The irrelevance of that claim is again easily seen by looking at it directly: Of the 15 kids who received a diagnosis, two continued to be transgender in adulthood (13/15 = 87% desistance), and of the 10 without a diagnosis, one continued to be transgender (9/10 = 90% desistance).  Drummond thus reported their combination, that (22/25 =) 88% desisted.  That is, both the “too wide” net and the narrow net each support the very same conclusion: The majority of kids cease to feel transgender when they get older.

This is what Kelly Winter PhD had to say about the study…

In fact, the Toronto and Dutch studies behind the “80% desistance” stereotype have been criticized for shortcomings in rigor and unsupported conclusions, including:

•  Sample Bias in Intake Criteria
•  Results Skewed by Punitive Psychotherapy Practices
•  Omitted Long Term Followup
•  Conflation of “desistant” gender identity with closeted gender identity
•  Discarded Retrospective Evidence
•  Mis-stating nonparticipation at followup as “desistence”

Moreover, even if we accept the “desistance” axiom at face value, Whitehall is mistaken to apply it in Patrick Mitchell’s case. It is intended by its promoters for young, prepubertal children, not 14 year-old teens. For example, Zucker and CAMH colleagues have stated—

we take a very different approach when we work with adolescents with GID than when we work with children with GID. This is because we believe that there is much less evidence that GID can remit in adolescents than in children…if the clinical consensus is that a particular adolescent is very much likely to persist down a pathway toward hormonal and sex-reassignment surgery, then out therapeutic approach is one that supports this pathway…

In science, those making the claim bear the burden of proof to defend that claim, and the “80% desistance” axiom has fallen far short of that standard.

There are strong emotions on both sides of the argument that makes it hard to evaluate the discussion but I believe that the statistics by CAMH and the interpretation of the research is wrong and I go with the APA, WPATH, and other medical associations of the results.