Ukraine

I usually don’t comment on politics unless it had a bearing on trans-issues, but I feel the need to comment on what is happening in the Ukraine.

I think many people felt the Russians were up to no good when they had “training exercises” on the Ukrainian border and were not surprised when they moved troop into the Crimea region of Ukraine. So now the question is what’s next?

The hawks in Congress are calling for a strong reaction and putting down a line in the sand, while others in Congress and the President are calling for a flexible response.

So let’s look at some facts…

• Russia is the second largest military power,
• Russia is headed by the former head of the KGB,
• Russia is one of the top producers of oil in the world,
• Russia supplies most of the natural gas to Europe and much of that travels through the Ukraine.

What can the United States do in response to the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia?

I believe there are only two ways that the US can respond,

• Give military support to Ukraine which will mean war with Russia and that could ultimately lead to thermonuclear war,
• Economic sanctions against Russia which will be ineffective because the world’s need for oil and gas.

So no matter what we or the world does will stop Putin, I believe he wants the former Soviet sphere back under his thumb. The fox is in charge of the henhouse. As long as the world is dependent upon oil there is not much anyone can do to nations that control the world petroleum reserves, yes we are producing more gas and oil that we use, but it is only a drop in a bucket compared to the world demand.

I believe that Putin will not stop at the Crimea and will move into the rest of the Ukraine under the same pretense. Having the UN protect Russian citizens in the Crimea will not work because that is just a pretense for Russia to take control. Sanctions will not work because sanctions that are strong enough to hurt Russia will also hurt Europe. I hope that the hawks in Congress do not win, and we take a flexible approach in our response; we cannot back ourselves in to a corner. I believe that we are going down the path to another Cold War.

I hope and pray that I'm wrong, but I don't think so.