Let’s Roll The Dice.

It is time for the crap shoot to begin.

The Supreme Court has started hearing the arguments for the California Proposition 8 case. From the news you would think that the only choice in the case is to legalize marriage equality or uphold the ban on equality, but in reality they have five possible outcomes.

According to CBS News there are five possible outcomes…

In the most dramatic ruling it could deliver, the Supreme Court could use Hollingsworth v. Perry to rule that marriage is a constitutional right available to all Americans, gay or straight.

In this possibility the court could find the marriage equality bans violates the 14^th Amendment, the equal protection clause and this ruling will overturn laws in the 39 states that ban on marriage equality, either by law or by their constitution. This option I think is the least possible ruling; the court is too conservative for them to make marriage equality the law of the land.

The next outcome that will have the biggest impact is…

The second big move the court could make would be to declare that same-sex marriage is not protected by the Constitution.

This ruling will result in each state governing marriage in their states and will not overturn of the state’s bans. It will mean that instead of one united effort in federal court, the marriage equality battle will have to be fought in all fifty states. I think this has a better chance of being the court ruling, but not the most likely.

CBS News lists this as the third choice…

In a third alternative, the Supreme Court may decide that states that recognize same-sex civil unions or domestic partnerships -- and provide them with nearly the same benefits of marriage -- cannot legitimately bar same-sex marriage.

That decision could extend same-sex marriage to California and eight other states that currently have comprehensive civil union or domestic partnership laws -- and it's the argument the Obama administration has put forward.

I think this has a more likely chance of being the ruling of the court, but not the mostly ruling. Again, I think the court is too conservative to have this outcome.

The article points out that…

At the same time, Winkler [UCLA School of Law Professor] said it could be a "dangerous" argument from the perspective of gay rights proponents in one sense -- "It could discourage other states from granting civil unions," he explained.

The fourth choice is…

In a fourth option, the Supreme Court ruling could apply just to California because of the case's unique circumstances.

Voters in California passed Proposition 8, the ballot initiative banning same-sex marriage, in 2008 -- after the California Supreme Court had granted same-sex couples the right to marry. That put California voters in the unique position of taking away rights granted by the court. After Prop. 8 passed, a federal court followed by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals said Prop. 8 was unconstitutional

I think that this outcome is the most likely of the five possible rulings. I think that this one is the most likely outcome because I think the courts want to overturn California law and still make some national impact, this ruling will do so. It will say once you grant marriage equality you can’t take it away.

The last of the possible outcome is in my opinion is the next most likely to be the court’s ruling…

In yet another option, the court could decide the proponents of Proposition 8 have no standing in court and dismiss the case entirely.

Normally, California's governor and attorney general would defend a state law in court. In this case, however, they declined to appeal the district court ruling striking down Proposition 8. Instead, supporters of Proposition 8 took it upon themselves to appeal.

Dellinger [former acting solicitor general of the Clinton administration] filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court arguing that the Proposition 8 supporters have no legitimate reason to be in court.

This has a chance of being the court ruling because as said, I think the court wants to overturn Prop 8 and this ruling will have the least effect on the other states. So it will boil down to if the judges want to limit their ruling to just California or to include the other states that granted marriage equality.

The Supreme Court is supposed to be above politics and public opinion and just base their rulings on the law, but I feel that public opinion does influence the way the judges interpret the Constitution.

What do you think...

Supreme Court Ruling on Prop 8