Friday, January 01, 2016

The Crystal Ball

It is that time of the year to make predictions for the upcoming year… so here I go.

First I don’t see any major pro LGBT being introduced this year in the Connecticut legislature, the only possibility is a bill to make the stand alone sexual orientation non-discrimination law a part of the non-discrimination statute. But I do see a strong possibility of an anti-trans bill being introduced. Last year a Republican legislator tried to pass a bill to take away our health insurance, I don’t see that happening again this year but I see a chance of another bill being introduced maybe our own bathroom bill for schools. I don’t see it passing but you always have to oppose it.

In other states I don’t think it take too much crystal ball gazing to say that  there will be more anti-trans bills introduced this year because in two states Republicans legislators have said they are in introducing legislation (Indiana and Missouri) and I think there is a stronger chance that one of the bills will pass this year.

Nationally I don’t see much happening because of the Republican controlled Congress but I think there will be a lobbying day for the proposed Equality Act. Other than the Equality Act I see no other pro legislation but there might be another “Religious Freedom” bill that would expand religious exemptions. I also see the trans ban in the military being lifted sometime this spring.

I see the expansion of Title VII and Title IX through the courts to include sexual orientation a real possibility. I know that there is a court case that argues that sexual orientation is covered under Title VII sex discrimination based on the Price Waterhouse v. Hopkins Supreme Court decision of 1989 that said “that petitioner had unlawfully discriminated against her on the basis of sex by consciously giving credence and effect to partners' comments about her that resulted from sex stereotyping.” The current court case is saying that discrimination against gays and lesbian is a form of “sex stereotyping” which is the same argument that was used to get gender identity covered under Title VII and Title IX.

The elections…
I don’t think the Democrats have a shoe-in for the presidency because of the Electoral College and the way the Republicans are gerrymandering the voting districts and limiting those eligible to vote. I think whoever the Democratic candidate is they are going to have a very tough battle ahead and how it reflects in the Congressional elections is anyone guess.

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